With three games left of the 2021-22 season the The Super Bowl 2022 is reaching its pinnacle, four teams are in the hunt to be crowned Super Bowl LVI winners. After Tom Brady and the Buccaneers were eliminated in the previous round we will also be crowning a new champion. After the sensational matchup between the Bills and the Chiefs during the AFC divisional playoffs, it comes as no surprise that the Kansas City Chiefs have been installed as the new favourites.
Having made an appearance at the last two Super Bowl’s, emerging as champions in 2019-20, Patrick Mahomes is looking to cement his status as the league’s premier quarterback and the Chiefs as the team to beat on the road to the Super Bowl 2022.
With the proliferation of betting options online it can be overwhelming trying to decide how to bet to maximise profits and fun! When in doubt we usually turn to the tried and tested win/loss proposition. As in, I think the Chiefs are going to beat the Rams during the Super Bowl therefore I will just bet on the Chiefs. There can be value in this, if you bet earlier in the calendar year where the odds for Super Bowl winners can be especially attractive.
But what about the odds in the weeks prior to the Super Bowl? In a head-to-head scenario, they can be particularly prohibitive. One of the most competitive betting options for punters however is spread betting. Not just a bet on the outcome of the match, but a bet on the bookmaker’s prediction on the outcome of the match.
Who doesn’t like the opportunity to put your predictive talents to the test?- The Super Bowl 2022
Understanding spread betting
American Football spread betting provides much more variety than just backing a team to win and lose. However, there are certain nuances to understanding spread betting and how we bet using the spread.
Point Spreads
In terms of sports betting, point spreads have been one of the most useful inventions to encourage betting action and is consequently one of the most familiar types of sports wagers in the US.
Using the AFC Championship game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs as an example, you might see underneath the match spread section that the Bengals are (+7) 20/21, and the Chiefs are (-7) 20/23. The fractional odds indicate that both teams can be backed at around EVENS in price, however we know that a straight bet for the Chiefs to win should bring up odds of about 2/7. If you would like more balanced odds, the spread is the best option.
Why the improvement in odds using the match spread? What the spread indicates is that we can back the Chiefs or the Bengals at balanced odds taking into account the handicap that the bookmakers have attached to the game. In the case of the Conference Championship match, the Chiefs are giving 7 points from their total score, while the Bengals are adding 7 points to their final score.
If hypothetically the Chiefs beat the Bengals with the same score as they knocked over the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round 42-36, the six point difference in the score would mean a bet on the spread for the Chiefs at (-7) would be a losing bet, as it would take the final score (for the purpose of the bookmakers bet) to 36-35 in favour of the Bills.
Spread Betting Markets
Understanding the spread is the first step to making an informed decision before betting on American football.
Placing a spread bet on the NFL is a separate proposition where you are betting against the bookmaker’s prediction on the outcome of a result. Rather than a simple win/loss situation, your potential profit or loss is not fixed. It is determined by the difference between the price you buy or sell and the final result.
Click here to see some examples of American Football spread betting markets, or here for more information about some of the most popular American Football spread betting markets.
How does this work in practice? Let’s take a look at the second game of the NFL Conference Championship this weekend between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have been installed as 2.5-4.5 point favourites to beat the 49ers, indicating if you felt the Rams will win the game by more than 4.5 points you can buy at 4.5. Conversely, if you think the Rams should win by fewer than 2.5 points or lose the game, you can sell the spread at 2.5.
Your potential profit on the Rams or 49ers will be determined by the price difference between the spread bet and final result. If the Rams ran away as 10 point winners, you would have won 5.5 times your stake (the winning margin minus the 4.5 spread bet). If the Rams won the match by 1-point, you would have lost 3.5 times your stake based upon a bet on the Rams at 4.5.
Knowing that your winnings or losses are not fixed is critical to understand the difference between a straight bet on the spread as is common with a lot of US sport betting markets, and spread betting one might find at various online betting exchanges.
