Paris (France) – Case numbers are key to all corona measures from shutdown to easing public life. In Germany, the Robert Koch Institute in Berlin collects the number of newly infected patients who died of Covid-19. By estimate, the number of those recovered that are known to be immune according to current knowledge, however, due to the multi-day incubation period and the length of the reporting processes. These figures only provide a glimpse into the past. Do you know Corona’s prediction already unpredictable?
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Corona prediction: The infection process more up-to-date
In contrast, statistical prognoses could represent the infection process more up-to-date. An international team of scientists has now checked the quality of such forecasts. As they report in the journal “Chaos,” The number of cases fluctuates very strongly in their forecasts and only used with extreme caution. Davide Faranda, physicist and climate scientist at the Université Paris-Saclay, developed together with colleagues. From Great Britain, Mexico, Denmark, and Japan, a statistical method to better estimate the development of the corona case numbers.
infected with disease symptoms.
To this end, they divided the total population into four groups. The largest group unites people who are susceptible to corona infection. The second group includes those infected who show no symptoms. The third includes those currently infected with disease symptoms. Finally, the fourth group consists of recovered and deceased Covid-19 patients. Who consequently can no longer infect other people. The forecast is now based on the circumstances under which people change from one group to another. Parameters such as infection rate, incubation period, and course of the disease play an important role in this.
The uncertainties in both the parameters
Each calculation of the differential equations established by the researchers also requires the current case numbers of all four groups in a region as a starting value. “Because of the uncertainties in both the parameters and the number of cases. The forecasts only provide data with large deviations,” says Faranda. Dark numbers, for example, have a powerful impact on those infected. For example, if only 20 percent more people are infected than the official figures indicate. The number of people who are expected to be affected fluctuates between a few thousand and a few million.
The uncertainties are very important – Corona prediction.
With this sobering result, the study shows that the development of the corona pandemic has so far been difficult to grasp, even with sophisticated statistical methods. According to Faranda, the uncertainties are very significant, especially in the initial phase of an outbreak.
The final verdict on Corona prediction
New and more reliable information about the risk of infection and incubation time could also increase the quality of such forecasts. Until then, virologists and political decision-makers are all the more dependent on the results of various coronavirus. Tests as possible to identify a possible second wave of infection as early as possible. I hope now you know well, Corona prediction.
